Egypt is key in Middle East

The Internet and the airwaves are clogged with contradictorypredictions of what the Mideast upheavals will mean to the regionand to us.

Some pundits insist the Mideast revolts are a victory for al-Qaida, or Iran, while others say the revolts undercut both. So,after 11 days in Cairo, I guess I should take a stab atprognostication.

Here goes: In the foreseeable, I don't think these upheavals willpresent a clear-cut victory for either democracy or Islam, as each shaken country will be dealing with very different internal circumstances. But the overall trend -- including the impact on America's Mideast policy -- will be set by what develops in Egypt.

Before I explain why democracy there has a chance, let me detail why a more-democratic Egypt would be crucial for the region. In the other countries undergoing upheavals, the odds for a transition to stable democracy are far, far slimmer.

If Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi falls, he will leave a huge territory bereft of institutions and rent by tribal conflicts. In Yemen, where al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula is based, the fall of Ali Abdullah Saleh could usher in tribal wars and a greater sway by radical clerics. This could pose a worrying threat to Saudi Arabia next door. Tunisia may muddle through, although its economy is reeling.

So, the outcome of Egypt's revolution is crucial, and not just because of its size and its historic role as leader of the Arab world. If the Egyptian youth revolt leads to a non-Islamist democracy -- even one with flaws -- it would provide a counterpoint to the claim that "Islam is the answer."

Of course, a democratic Egypt would not be as unquestioning anally -- or as quiescent a peace partner to Israel -- as was Hosni Mubarak. But, based on many interviews in Cairo, I don't believe the peace treaty with Israel would be breached. Egyptians don't want war. This brings us to the question of whether an Egyptian democracy can emerge.

The argument against this possibility assumes that the Muslim Brotherhood -- Egypt's best organized Islamist group, which is allowed to run candidates for parliament -- will hijack the revolution.

Skeptics point to the mammoth demonstration in Tahrir Square on Feb. 18, at which the radical Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi preached. Supposedly, the whole crowd was shouting "on to Jerusalem" or some such words -- proof of the coming Islamic putsch.

I was in that crowd. No such mass chant took place (there wereonly small pockets of chanters). The prayers led by Qaradawi took30 minutes out of a celebration that continued for hours, duringwhich the signs and chants of the crowd had almost nothing to dowith Islam or Palestine.

That said, the outcome of the revolution is far from certain. TheEgyptian army, which is overseeing the transition to new elections, may commit errors that enable the Brotherhood to punch far above its weight (at an estimated 20 percent support from the public).

On Monday, the army called for parliamentary elections in June. This fails to allow enough time for the groups that made the revolution to organize new political parties and mobilize the 80 percent of the public that usually doesn't vote. Such an early ballot will benefit the Brotherhood -- which is already organized -- as well as the former governing party, which will no doubt returnunder a new name.

This would be a tragic error. Egypt is ripe for democratic changethat could help steady a region in dizzying transition. Those who have the Egyptian military's ear -- including its benefactors in Washington -- should be sending this message loud and clear.